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  CafaZG

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Junior
Junior

Pristupio/la: 11.Travanj.2006
Lokacija: Croatia
Poruke: 79
Poslano: 09.Svibanj.2006 u 13:04 | IP zapisan Citiram CafaZG

Po mom iskustvu, najbolje je klađenje na košarku. Inače, za nogomet, dobro je pogledati prvih 15 minuta utakmice pa vidjeti kako se igra razvija, ali nogomet je dosta varljiv za klađenje uživo jer ekipa koja vodi obično dobije jako mali koeficijent za pobjedu, pogotovo ako je favorit, a jedan slučajni gol je dovoljan da upropasti okladu.

U košarci se zabija puno više, a može se uloviti dobar koeficijent za over/under. Primjer od jučer:

Miami - New Jersey. Kao što sam rekao u prognozi, New Jersey je bio favorit, a kladionice su tvrdoglavo tvrdile suprotno. I, New Jersey je poveo. Nakon 4 minute 18:5, nakon 8 minuta 28:13, na kraju četvrtine 38:21.

Čak i tad, koeficijent na pobjedu New Jerseya je bio između 1.83 i 1.60, a linija za over/under je rasla sve do 213.5 pred kraj poluvremena makar je rezultat bio 64:46, 110 koševa ukupno, nakon prve četvrtine s 59 koševa.

New Jersey je na početku imao oko 70% šuta i bilo je jasno da se to, kao prvo, neće održati kroz sve četvrtine, a kao drugo, da neće biti situacija faul-slobodno bacanje u zadnjim minutama zbog velike prednosti New Jerseya pa neće biti zabijeno 15 koševa u zadnje 2 minute.

Ja sam uzeo koeficijent 1.83 za ispod 213.5 koševa minutu prije kraja poluvremena. U poluvremenu su bookmakeri krenuli računati, spustili koeficijent do 1.40 da bi prije početka treće četvrtine linija bila niža, 208.5.

Sporo su reagirali i dalje, spuštali liniju do 202.5 u vrijeme kad je bilo jasno da se nikako neće prijeći 200 koševa. Opet sam uplatio.

Na kraju je linija bila spuštena na početnih 191.5 i čak je i završilo - underom. 100:88.

Dakle, treba čekati pravi trenutak. Kao u Imoli, gdje je u jednom trenutku na prvoplasiranog (!) Schumachera koeficijent za pobjedu bio 5.50. Da bi se uspješno kladilo uživo, treba nadmudriti bookmakere, i kladiti se isključivo kada se primijeti njihova greška u procjeni.
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  CafaZG

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Junior
Junior

Pristupio/la: 11.Travanj.2006
Lokacija: Croatia
Poruke: 79
Poslano: 17.Svibanj.2006 u 19:48 | IP zapisan Citiram CafaZG

Evo novih informacija...

Tenis

Unaprijed treba izabrati dvoboj loših servera koji su što je moguće više izjednačeni u kvaliteti. Treba čekati prvi break i tada uplatiti na onoga koji gubi. Pričekati preokret (dogodit će se) i uplatiti opet na veći koeficijent. Nije potrebno reći, oba koeficijenta na koja se uplaćuje trebaju biti veći od 2.00 da bi se zaradilo. I, rizično je, ali bookmakeri nikad ne reagiraju na situaciju na terenu u klađenju uživo, nego samo na rezultat. Slijepi kod zdravih očiju, da ih se iskoristiti, a s većim ulozima se od toga može fino živjeti. Za ovakvu okladu na tenis nije ni nužno zapravo gledati utakmicu na televiziji.

Košarka

Over/under i ništa više. Prije početka utakmice je potrebno predvidjeti zbroj koševa i vidjeti griješi li bookmaker. Tijekom utakmice, treba podijeliti svaku četvrtinu na 3 dijela od po 4 minute, i gledati zbroj koševa u svakom od tih dijelova. Tad će se vidjeti tendencija smanjivanja ili povećavanja zbroja. Osim toga, treba paziti i na postotak šuta ekipa. Ako je jako velik, oko 60-70%, izvjesno je da će se smanjiti, a ako je jako mali, oko 30%, izvjesno je da će se povećati. I na to treba obratiti pažnju. Najbolje je uplatiti prije kraja treće četvrtine, jer u pauzi bookmakeri revidiraju koeficijente i svoje greške. U svakom slučaju, tromi su.

Hokej na ledu

Najgora opcija za klađenje uživo, jer je skoro nemoguće predvidjeti zbroj golova na temelju prethodne trećine ili prethodne dvije trećine, a preokreti su konstanta. Ako se već kladi uživo na over/under, treba brojati udarce na gol, one alibi-udarce, i one koji su zaista opasni pa prema tome donijeti zaključak. Ali, što više golman brani to se više razbrani, a ne postoje dvije trećine u hokeju koje se odvijaju jednako...

Bejzbol

Rijetko u ponudi, ponekad vikendom, kad se utakmice igraju oko 18h po europskom vremenu. S obzirom na to da se tijek utakmice sasvim solidno da pratiti na službenoj stranici, a bookmakeri reagiraju samo na rezultat, moguće je lijepo zaraditi kada se mijenja startni bacač s nekim koji ima ERA npr. 9.00. Koeficijenti se malo mijenjaju kad su trkači na bazama, ali opet nedovoljno, i jako je efikasno kladiti se na bejzbol uživo. I na over/under, i na konačni ishod. Sve što je potrebno je biti sekundu brži od bookmakera.

Općenito

Znamo da u klađenju na ishod prije utakmice čak i koeficijenti 1.10 ponekad izgube. U klađenju uživo to nije tako, i može se 10-20 minuta prije kraja uplatiti veća suma novca na onoga koji vodi. Također je zanimljivo uplatiti da "neće biti jedanaesteraca" u nogometu 20 minuta prije kraja - koeficijent se ne mijenja od samog početka i iznosi 1.13, bar u Gamebookers kladionici.

Kladionice

Betandwin ima najveću ponudu tijekom same utakmice, najbrže mijenja koeficijente, moguće se kladiti skoro do završetka utakmice. Prema tome, teško ih je "prevariti". S druge strane, Gamebookers ima siromašnu ponudu na utakmice (makar nudi dovoljan broj utakmica), i vrlo često to uključuje samo okladu na 1x2 i over/under. Ali, spori su...jako spori. To pogoduje kladiteljima. Jedino su brzi u zaustavljanju koeficijenta nakon bitne promjene na terenu (gol, break, crveni karton...), ali uvijek im treba barem 2-3 minute da izvjese novi, revidirani koeficijent. Frustrirajuće, ali iskoristivo. Expekt tek iskušava ulazak na tržište klađenja uživo.

Od ostalih kladionica nisam nijednu koristio, ali slijedi i njihova recenzija. Sve, samo da zaradimo...a nema ljepše stvari u klađenju nego prevariti bookmakera i gledati ga kako nemoćno smanjuje koeficijent na 1.05, a nama u "open bets" stoji 2.50...
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  marojica

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Kadet
Kadet

Pristupio/la: 21.Travanj.2009
Lokacija: Hrvatska
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Poslano: 23.Travanj.2009 u 22:46 | IP zapisan Citiram marojica

probatću ovo sa kosarkom ,imam i frena znalca pa cemo zajedno upaltit neki novac

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  ikalo

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Početnik
Početnik

Pristupio/la: 27.Listopad.2010
Lokacija: Bosna i Hercegovina
Poruke: 1
Poslano: 27.Listopad.2010 u 18:12 | IP zapisan Citiram ikalo

Mislim da je ovdje pravo mjesto za ono sto zelim pisati.

Prije svega, pozdrav svim forumasima.

Nedavno sam se uclanio u bwin online kladionicu, da vidim o cemu se tu radi. To je bas bilo u toku svjetskog nogometnog prvenstva. Naravno, kako nisam iskusan kladionicar nisam imao puno srece, vise sam promasivao nego pogadjao. Probao sam i online kladjenje na tenis, i tu nisam bas bio uspjesan. Ali sam primjetio nesto sto zelim da podjelim ovdje sa vama i da cujem i vase misljenje.

Zapazio sam da je pred pocetak svakog gema, kvota na brejk i djus oko 3 (zavisno od toka meca i igraca moze da varira od 1.6 do cak 5). To bi moglo biti savrseno za fibonacci progresiju. Uskoro cu spremiti par analiza stvarnih meceva, a u medjuvremenu, volio bih cuti da li je jos ikome ovo palo na pamet?

Velimir

EDIT:

deuce break
game d/b d b won d won b bank              3,20                2,60  
1 x 0,50   0,50   -     -     -1,00 -0,50 -0,50
2 x 0,50   0,50   -     -     -2,00 -1,00 -1,00
3 x 1,00   1,00   -     -     -4,00 -2,00 -2,00
4 x 1,50   1,50   -     -     -7,00 -3,50 -3,50
5 x 2,50   2,50   -     -     -12,00 -6,00 -6,00
6 db 4,00   4,00   12,80   10,40   3,20 2,80 0,40
7 x 0,50   0,50   -     -     2,20 2,30 -0,10
8 x 0,50   0,50   -     -     1,20 1,80 -0,60
9 b 1,00   1,00   -     2,60   1,80 0,80 1,00
10 d 1,50   0,50   4,80   -     4,60 4,10 0,50
11 x 0,50   0,50   -     -     3,60 3,60 0,00
12 x 0,50   1,00   -     -     2,10 3,10 -1,00
1 x 1,00   1,50   -     -     -0,40 2,10 -2,50
2 x 1,50   2,50   -     -     -4,40 0,60 -5,00
3 x 2,50   4,00   -     -     -10,90 -1,90 -9,00
4 x 4,00   6,50   -     -     -21,40 -5,90 -15,50
5 b 6,50   10,50   -     27,30   -11,10 -12,40 1,30
6 x 10,50   0,50   -     -     -22,10 -22,90 0,80
7 db 17,00   0,50   54,40   1,30   16,10 14,50 1,60
8 x 0,50   0,50   -     -     15,10 14,00 1,10
9 end 58,00   40,50   72,00   41,60  
ana ivanovic vs julia georges wta linz 15.10.2010.

Nadam se da je dovoljno pregledna tabela. Pocetno ulaganje je 0,5 EUR jer je to minimum na bwin-u.

Prva kolona je redni broj gema, zatim slijedi da li se desio djus ili brejk, zatim idu dve kolone sa ulozima, pa dve kolone sa eventualnim dobicima, pa zatim banka ukupno i dve kolone za banke ako se samo ulaze na djus ili samo na brejk. Prilikom ovog meca, sam samo jednom prilikom bacio pogled na bwin i u tom su trenutku kvote bile kao sto su na vrhu zadnje dve kolone. Vjerovatno je dolazilo do promjena kovota na brejk, ali nisam pratio detaljno sta se desava.

Sta je bit ove ideje? U tenisu se prije ili kasnije desava brejk i djus. Na zalost, nisam mogao da nadjem nigdje nekakvu statistiku koja biljezi koliko je toga bilo na pojedinom mecu. Ako neko zna gdje bi se to moglo naci, bio bih zahvalan za link. Znaci, potrebno je izabrati mec koji ima jako malu sansu da zavrsi bez brejkova i djuseva (7-6 7-6 i svako drzi svoj servis). Koliko sam mogao da primjetim, gledajuci poneki teniski mec zadnjih mjeseci, kod djevojaka i parova se cesce desavaju brejkovi, a kod muskaraca na mecevima na kojima ce biti dobra kvota za ovo, cesce se desavaju djusevi nego brejkovi.

Jos jedna stvar je jako bitna, kad prekinuti ulaganje. Da li ispratiti odlucujuci set do kraja ili se zaustaviti kod prvog brejka u zadnjem setu, odnosno ako onaj koji vodi 1-0 napravi brejk u drugom setu.

Jos razmisljam o tome, da ako dugo nema djusa a desi se brejk, ili obrnuto, da li nastaviti ulagati po odvojenim nizovima, ili napraviti neko "prelijevanje" da se ulozi iznivelisu.

Toliko za sad. U pripremi su jos dva meca koja sam na slican nacin vodio statistiku.



Uređeno od ikalo - 27.Listopad.2010 u 19:47
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  chanyuan

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chanyuan2017.04.28
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